Constraining tephra dispersion and deposition from three subplinian explosions in 2011 at Shinmoedake volcano,Kyushu, Japan

Constraining physical parameters of tephra dispersion and deposition from explosive volcanic eruptions is a significant challenge, because of both the complexity of the relationship between tephra distribution and distance from the vent and the difficulties associated with direct and comprehensive real-time observations. Three andesitic subplinian explosions in January 2011 at Shinmoedake volcano, Japan, are used as a case study to validate selected empirical and theoretical models using observations and field data. Tephra volumes are estimated using relationships between dispersal area and tephra thickness or mass/area. A new cubic B-spline interpolation method is also examined. Magma discharge rate is estimated using theoretical plume models incorporating the effect of wind. Results are consistent with observed plume heights (6.4–7.3 km above the vent) and eruption durations. Estimated tephra volumes were 15–34?×?10⁶ m³ for explosions on the afternoon of 26 January and morning of 27 January, and 5.0–7.6?×?10⁶ m³ for the afternoon of 27 January; magma discharge rates were in the range 1–2?×?10⁶ kg/s for all three explosions. Clast dispersal models estimated plume height at 7.1?±?1 km above the vent for each explosion. The three subplinian explosions occurred with approximately 12-h reposes and had similar mass discharge rates and plume heights but decreasing erupted magma volumes and durations.