基于格网数据的洪水灾害风险评估方法--以日本新川洪灾为例

本文对日本格网统计数据的历史、体系以及结构进行了介绍 ,并应用地理信息技术给出了各级格网的自动生成方法。同时以 2 0 0 0年日本新川洪水灾害为案例 ,建立了二维洪水演进水动力学模型 ,并采用地理信息系统与水动力学模型结合的方法对新川破堤洪水泛滥进行了模拟 ,同时对洪泛区灾害损失进行了评估 ,得到的结果为进一步评估洪水灾害风险以及确定合理的洪灾保险费率奠定了基础 ,对于格网统计数据在城市规划以及城市减灾等领域的应用也有一定的借鉴意义。

The Method of Flood Disaster Risk Evaluation Based Upon Data of Grid Square

In this paper the flood inundation caused by the Tokai heavy rainfall in Sept 2000 in the district of Nagoya City of Japan is used as a case of study Firstly, the history and structure of grid square statistical data in Japan is reviewed in detail, and the methods of creating these grid squares of different levels automatically are developed using geographical information system technique And then based on the theory of two dimensional shallow flow hydrodynamics, the numeric model is developed which is used to stimulate flood inundation after dike broken of Shin River Through integrating the GIS and hydrodynamic model, the values of velocity and depth in each 50m mesh are calculated at different time intervals These factors can be used as the flood risk indicator in practice and are very useful for decision making in the emergency period Then the three dimensional visualization of the inundation process is finished Also the exposure value of different properties are evaluated in each 500m mesh And then the economic losses caused by flood disaster are evaluated The results will be beneficial to evaluate the risk of every place in the flood plain and determine the insurance rate in the future because it can provide the common standard which is based on the same kinds of mesh Also it provides an example which will be helpful to using the grid square statistical data in the other study fields such as urban planning and disaster reducing