人类活动对塔里木河年径流影响量的估算

塔里木河流域与环境的研究，一直是近年来新疆环境演化和可持续发展研究的热点问题。大规模的区域开发活动对该流域生态环境产生了根本性的影响，区域整体生态环境趋于恶化。本文通过对年径流量累积曲线和年径流量的相关分析，估算出人类活动对塔里木河各河段的年径流量变化及其对生态环境造成的影响。

ESTIMATED CALCULATION TO ANNUAL RUNOFF VALUES OF TARIM RIVER AFFECTED BY HUMAN ACTIVITIES

Affected by human activities, the natural ecology environment and water quality of the Tarim River have been deteriorating in recent years. By the data of the hydrological observation stations in the Tarim river, the paper describes the accumulation curve of annual runoff which is divided into two parts in the various periods, one is not affected by human activities, the other is affected by human activities. A correlation is founded between the accumulation values of the total annual runoff of the hydrological stations in the tributaries of Tarim River and that of the stations in the trunk of Tarim River unaffected by human activities. The data of annual runoff change influenced by human activities are calculated in various reaches within the Tarim River. On the other hand, the annual runoff accumulation value of present time affected by human activities is different from that of 1970s and before. Compared with the data of 1970s, the annual runoff reduces 16.59% in 1990s in Alaer Hydrological Observation Station, it reduces 21.67% in Xinquman Hydrological Observation Station and 73.4% in Qiala Hydrological Observation Station. The more it reaches the lower part of the river, the more runoff value is reduced. It will be an important task to protect and use water resource rationally in the future.