考虑变形机制的边坡稳定预测模型

选择开挖卸荷、爆破振动、岩体流变以及降雨作为影响边坡施工期变形的4个主要因素，深入分析不同影响因素对边坡变形的作用机制，结合边坡位移实测资料，建立了考虑变形机制的边坡稳定预测模型。在弹性理论的简化下推导边坡回弹变形公式计算开挖卸荷分量，基于Burger模型的蠕变本构方程计算流变分量，采用已有的经验公式计算爆破分量和降雨分量；综合4个变形分量形成考虑变形机制的边坡稳定预测模型，该模型可体现各影响因素对边坡变形的作用和相关程度，更加科学合理地解释边坡变形产生的力学机制。通过对锦屏一级水电站左岸边坡外观测点TP5变形监测资料的统计回归分析表明：相对于传统的统计模型，该模型的回归方程显著，方差比和复相关系数较大，预测误差较小，具有工程应用价值。

Forecasting model of slope stability considering deformation mechanism

Excavation unloading, blasting vibration, rock rheology and rainfall are four main factors which affect the deformation of slope during the construction period. With deep analysis of different factors on the mechanism of slope deformation, a forecasting model of slope deformation based on the deformation mechanism is obtained according to slope displacement monitoring data. The formula of rebound slope deformation is derived under the simplification of the theory of elasticity which is used to calculate excavation unloading component; creeping constitutive equations based on Burgers model is used to calculate rheological component; and blasting component and rainfall component are calculated by using the existing empirical formula; the four deformation components are integrated to form forecasting model of slope deformation based on the deformation mechanism, from which a more scientific and reasonable explanation for the mechanical mechanism of slope deformation is got. The model has been used to conduct statistical regression analysis of monitoring data of the slope at the left bank of JinpingⅠHydropower Station. The results indicate that the proposed model gives a significant regression equation with small forecast errors; compared with traditional statistic models, the statistical multiple correlation coefficients and variance ratio are larger; thus the model has great application value