贵州省湿地碳储量与碳中和潜力分析

湿地作为缓解气候变化的关键生态系统, 在碳捕获与碳封存方面发挥着不可替代的作用。湿地碳储量和影响因素的分析以及固碳潜力的预测, 对湿地生态保护与管理、国家"双碳"目标实现具有重要意义。应用ArcGIS10.8对《贵州省湿地保护发展规划》(以下简称规划)的3个时期(分别是: 1999-2009年; 2010-2018年; 2018年至今)湿地分布图采用遥感目视解译的方式进行矢量化并根据贵州省岩溶发育强度进行分区。采用生命带研究法与生物量估算法等对贵州省湿地面积和碳储量变化进行估算分析, 对重要湿地碳储量与单位面积碳储量进行估算并与全省湿地进行对比, 采用固碳潜力计算模型对贵州省重要湿地固碳潜力进行估算, 应用Origin软件对各相关影响因子进行数据分析。结果表明: ①贵州省湿地规划前期的面积为216 526.95 hm2, 规划中期面积为209 726.85 hm2、规划后期面积为255 440.53 hm2, 总体表现为先下降再升高, 总体面积增加38 913.58 hm2; ②贵州省湿地碳储量变化为: 规划前期为5.97×105 t, 规划后期为3.78×106 t, 是规划前期的6倍以上, 碳储量增加明显。其中, 贵州省重要湿地碳储量为3.24×106 t, 占全省湿地碳储量85.71%, 固碳潜力十分显著; ③贵州省重要湿地的固碳潜力为1.14×104 t C/a, 预计到2030和2060年, 湿地总固碳量分别达到7.99×106 t C和8.34×106 t C; ④温度、DIC浓度、有机碳含量与面积对贵州省重要湿地的碳储量影响较大, 重要湿地碳储量与DIC浓度、有机碳含量以及面积呈正相关, 而与温度呈负相关关系。对贵州省的湿地碳储量估算与碳中和潜力分析不仅可以了解贵州省湿地碳封存现状, 还可为区域湿地生态系统在"3060"双碳目标的贡献上提供理论参考。 

Analysis of the carbon stock and carbon neutral potential of wetlands in Guizhou Province

As a key ecosystem for climate change mitigation, wetlands play an irreplaceable role in carbon capture and sequestration. The analysis of wetland carbon stocks and their influencing factors, as well as the prediction of carbon sequestration potential, are of great significance to the conservation and management of wetlands and the achievement of the national "double carbon" target.This study employed ArcGIS 10.8 to vectorize the wetland distribution map of the Wetland Protection and Development Plan of Guizhou Province (hereinafter referred to as the Plan) for three periods (1999-2009, 2010-2018, and 2018-present, respectively) by means of remote sensing visual interpretation and zoned them according to the intensity of karst development in Guizhou Province. The changes in wetland area and carbon stock in Guizhou Province were estimated and analyzed using the life belt research method and biomass estimation method, and the total carbon stock and carbon stock per unit area of key wetlands were estimated and compared with those of all wetlands in Guizhou Province. A calculation model was used to estimate the carbon sequestration potential of the key wetlands in Guizhou Province.The Origin software was applied to analyze the data on all relevant impact factors. The results showed that: ①The area of wetlands in Guizhou Province was 216, 526.95 hm2, 209, 726.85 hm2, and 255, 440.53 hm2 in the pre-, mid-, and late-planning periods, respectively, with an overall decrease and then increase, and the total area increased by 38, 913.58 hm2; ② The wetland carbon stock in Guizhou Province was 3.78×106 t in the late stage of planning, increasing significantly to more than 6 times of that in the early stage of planning(5.97×105 t), among which the carbon stock of the key wetlands was 3.24×106 t, accounting for 85.71% of the province's wetland carbon stock; ③ The carbon sequestration potential of the keywetlands in Guizhou Provincewas 1.14×104 t C/a, and the total carbon sequestration of wetlands is expected to reach 7.99×106 t C and 8.34×106 t C by 2030 and 2060, respectively; and ④ The carbon stock of the key wetlands was positively correlated with DIC concentration, organic carbon content and wetland area and negatively correlated with temperature, indicating thattemperature, DIC concentration, organic carbon content and wetland area had a strong influence on the carbon stock of the key wetlands in Guizhou Province.The results of this study will not only facilitate the understanding of the current status of wetland carbon sequestration in Guizhou Province but also provide a theoretical reference for the contribution of regional wetland ecosystems to the "3060" dual carbon target.