中国外贸货物出口的地理格局演化及影响因素分析——基于货物出口距离和GTWR模型

研究基于出口距离的基本定义及衍生的出口偏移指数（IMEO),探讨了2005—2016年中国317个市域单元的货物出口格局演化。同时,以一般公共预算支出、规模以上工业总产值、互联网宽带用户数表征财政投入、工业水平、通信技术,利用时空地理加权回归模型（GTWR）分析了其对于地区货物出口的影响。研究得出以下结论：① 2005—2016年IMEO呈现正余弦叠加振荡,外贸货物出口格局的演化态势为：重心西移→重心东移→重心西移→重心东移,表明西部地区的货物出口贸易受经济转型和国际环境的冲击更大;② 在对外贸货物出口的整体影响上,财政投入>工业水平>通信技术。政府财政投入对货物出口贸易的影响已经式微,通信技术发展对西部外贸货物出口的促进作用较东南部更为显著。研究认为未来东部应当加大高新技术产品的出口,增加对贸易风险的管控。西部则应加大基础设施建设,提升工业生产能力。

Geographic pattern evolution of China's merchandise export and its influencing factors: Based on the analysis of merchandise export distance and the GTWR model

By using an analysis framework based on distance of merchandise export, this paper compared two definitions of the actual and ideal distance of merchandise export, and then used the Index of Merchandise Export Offset (IMEO) to analyze the evolution of merchandise export pattern among 317 Chinese cities from 2005 to 2016, which integrated geographical factors to analyze the export trade and comprehensively discussed the changing characteristics of the export pattern relative to the economic pattern. In the meantime, the general public budget, the industrial outputs of enterprises above designated size and broadband users were adopted to depict each city’s government investment, industrial level and the development of communication technology respectively, and then their effects on the regional merchandise export were explored by using the GTWR. Finally, the study came to the following conclusions: (1) From 2005 to 2016, the IMEO shows a special sine-cosine superposed oscillation, and the evolution of merchandise export pattern is moving west, moving east, west again and east again. This indicates that the economic transformation and the international environment influence the merchandise export of the western region greatly. Obviously, the merchandise export in the central and western regions has risen twice in comparison with its weak economic strength from 2005 to 2016. However, this development momentum will soon fall back to some extent due to the background of its own development and the international environment. (2) In terms of the overall impact on the merchandise export, it can be listed as follows: government investment > industrial level > communication technology. The impact of government investment on merchandise export has weakened over time, whereas the development of communication technology plays a more significant role in promoting the export of merchandise in the west than in the southeast. Based on these, we think that the east should emphasize the export of high-tech products and then increase the ability of keeping away from trade risks in the future, and the west should focus on the infrastructure construction and its industrial production capacity. Besides, the premise setting of IMEO measurement in this paper is relatively simple, and there is still space for further expansion of the selection of influencing factors.