中国及其周边国家间地缘关系解析

地缘关系研究作为地理学中一个重要研究领域越来越受到学者关注,开展基于大数据的地缘关系的定量研究,是对传统地缘关系研究的重要补充。利用新闻媒体大数据GDELT从全球性的视角将中国及其周边国家间地缘关系综合表达为合作与冲突关系,通过有序聚类方法识别中国及其周边国家合作与冲突的阶段划分,并对不同阶段国家间的合作与冲突关系进行社会网络分析,利用社区探索等工具对合作与冲突网络进一步剖析和解译,最后对不同时段内突出的双边关系进行对应分析,以及以中国为中心的均衡度分析。结果发现：1979-2017年中国及其周边国家间合作与冲突关系在时间上表现出明显的3个阶段,中国逐渐成为网络的中心,形成了以中国为中心,以俄、日、韩为支撑的广泛合作格局;中越、中日、中俄、朝韩等各阶段突出的双边关系表现出各异的发展态势和驱动因素;伴随着中国和平崛起的进程,中国与周边国家的合作越来越均衡,与此同时中国与周边国家的冲突范围不断扩大。

Analysis of the geo-relationships between China and its neighboring countries

Geo-relationships, as an important field of research in geography, have attracted much attention from scholars. Quantitative research on geo-relationships based on big data is an important supplement to traditional geo-relationships study. This paper uses GDELT mass media data to express the geo-relationships between China and its neighboring countries as a global relationship of cooperation and conflict, and identifies the stage division of these relationships using ordered cluster analysis. Social network analysis is conducted for each stage of the cooperation and conflict relationship, and community detection is used to further analyze and interpret the networks of cooperation and conflict. Finally, we highlight bilateral relations in various stages and conduct a China-centered equilibrium analysis. Three main results are presented. First, from 1979 to 2017, the cooperation and conflict relationship between China and its neighboring countries demonstrated an obvious three-stage temporal division. China has gradually become the center of the network, and a broad cooperation pattern centered on China and supported by Russia, Japan, and South Korea has formed. Second, the highlighted bilateral relations in each stage, such as China-Vietnam, China-Japan, China-Russia, and DPRK-ROK, show varied development trends and driving factors. Third, with the process of China's peaceful rise, cooperation between the country and its neighbors is becoming more and more balanced, and conflict between them is expanding.