基于农户视角的宅基地空心化影响因素研究

明晰宅基地空心化形成机制是推进空心村治理与实施乡村振兴战略的重要前提。本文建立数理模型并运用分位数回归方法,从理论和实证层面探究宅基地空心化成因的差异性。结果表明：① 调研地区的宅基地空心化率均值为29.14%,山地和丘陵的空心化程度远高于平原,中西部地区显著高于东部地区;② 经济发展水平、地形状况、社会保障制度是宅基地空心化的重要影响因素;耕地资源禀赋、人口等社会因素、制度因素等影响随分位点而异;③ 家庭年总收入、村组区位对宅基地空心化的正向影响随分位点提高而增加,宅基地确权进度、“一户一宅”落实情况的正向影响仅在中低分位点呈上升趋势,对于“举家迁移”的影响并不明显;农户参保行为可显著抑制空心化程度的加剧,地形的负向影响呈“U”型分布。

Study on the influencing factors of homestead hollowing in a households’perspective

Hollow village is the epitome of China's economic and social changes in the village scale, characterized by the decline of industries, the outmigration and the large existences of derelict lands and homestead, which poses a real threat to land resources, food security, village environment, social stability and rural governance. The research on the formation mechanism of homesteads hollowing is not only helpful for understanding the hollow village phenomenon in China, but also an important prerequisite for the promotion of hollow village governance and the implementation of rural revitalization strategy. Based on 1238 households’ questionnaires, the paper establishes a mathematical model and uses quantile regression method to explore theoretically and empirically the differential causes of homestead hollowing. The quantile regression results show that: (1) the average estimated hollow rate of homesteads is 29.14%, which is much higher in mountainous and hilly areas than in plains areas, that is, 30.93%, 35.58%, and 20.30%, respectively, and higher in central and western regions than in eastern regions, 31.21%, 34.29%, and 22.41%, respectively. (2) Homesteads hollowing is the result of more factors than one, of which, socio-economic development, terrain, village location and social security system are the dominant factors for homesteads hollowing, while the influences of cultivated land resource endowment, family size, the peasants’ notion of "Jiaye", outmigration proportion and institutional factors vary across quantiles. (3) The positive impacts of household income and the distance from the township increases with the rising quantiles, while the impacts of land titling and the policy implementation of “one homestead for one "hu" only rise in the lower and median quantiles, but hardly statistically in upper quantile, which was mostly caused by integral outmigration. Additionally, the farmer's participation of new rural social pension insurance can significantly decrease the homesteads hollowing rate, while the negative effects of the terrain present a U-shaped distribution. Finally, the paper proposes some further research directions that can be developed, such as exploring the role of social network in the outmigration with the help of large-scale micro population database, and evaluating the land titling policy with the difference-in-difference method. The findings of this study can not only contribute to understanding the formation mechanism of homesteads hollowing, but also shed light on future studies on the targeted governance.