“一带一路”国家粮食贸易网络空间格局及其演化机制

农产品贸易是“一带一路”沿线国家间经贸合作的重要内容,但现有贸易理论无法很好地解释“一带一路”国家间粮食贸易网络的格局演化。该文构建了一个四维菱形分析框架,并将社会网络分析与空间计量分析相结合,基于1993—2016年联合国商品贸易数据,分析了“一带一路”国家间粮食贸易网络的空间结构特征及其演化机制。结果表明：① “一带一路”国家间的粮食贸易网络密度不断提高,贸易关系和贸易强度不断加深,在全球粮食贸易网络中的地位呈波动上升态势,并出现明显的贸易俱乐部现象;② 该粮食贸易网络呈现由无核到多核再到重塑的演化历程;③ 中国与其他“一带一路”国家间的粮食贸易经历了从出口导向到进口导向的演化历程,“一带一路”倡议提高了中国在全球粮食贸易网络中的地位;④ “一带一路”国家间粮食贸易网络的演化是受资源禀赋、经济环境、文化认同和政治博弈4个因素共同作用的结果,各因素在不同阶段所起的作用不同;粮食贸易较其他贸易而言特色鲜明,其稳定性更强。研究结果对促进“一带一路”国家农业贸易的健康繁荣,建设开放包容的经济环境具有指导意义。

Spatial pattern and evolution of cereal trade networks among the Belt and Road countries

Trade of agricultural commodities is an important part of the economic and trade cooperation between the Belt and Road countries, but the existing trade theories cannot fully explain the pattern and change of the cereal trade network between these countries. This study set up a four-dimensional analytical framework, combined social network analysis with spatial econometric analysis, and analyzed the spatial structure characteristics and mechanism of change of cereal trade network between the Belt and Road countries based on the United Nations Comtrade data from 1993 to 2016. The results show that: 1) The cereal trade network density of the Belt and Road countries is constantly increasing while the trade relations and trade intensity between these countries are constantly deepening. The position of the Belt and Road countries in the global grain trade network is on the rise and there is a clear phenomenon of trade club. 2) The network of trade relations has evolved from non-nuclear to multi-nuclear, and then to reshaping. 3) China's cereal trade with other Belt and Road countries has undergone an evolution from export-oriented to import-oriented. The Belt and Road initiative has enhanced China's position in the global grain trade network. 4) The evolution of the national cereal trade network of the Belt and Road countries is the product of resource endowment, economic environment, cultural identity, and political games. Compared with other trade networks, grain trade network has distinct characteristics and stronger stability. This study may provide some guidance for promoting cereal trade cooperation among the Belt and Road countries, optimizing trade structure, and ensuring food security.