京津冀地区乡村振兴地域模式研究——基于乡村非农就业与农民增收的空间效应

探讨乡村非农就业与农民增收、农业农村发展之间的辩证关系,构建乡村振兴地域模式,对有序推进城镇化,实现农民生活富裕与乡村振兴具有重要意义。将京津冀地区划分为京津近郊区（I）、冀东北地区（II）、冀中平原区（III）、冀西太行山区（IV）、坝上地区（V）五类地域类型,采用2000—2016年京津冀县域面板数据,应用空间回归模型测算了京津冀地区乡村非农就业对农民增收的空间效应,提炼了京津冀地区乡村振兴地域模式。结果表明：① 京津冀地区及五类地域类型区乡村就业非农化率与农民收入持续增长,2000—2016年,京津冀地区农村居民人均纯收入由2486元增至11920元,乡村就业非农化率由38.9%增至57.5%,五类地域类型区乡村就业非农化率排序依次为：I>III>II>IV>V,农村居民人均纯收入排序依次为：I>II>III>IV>V;② 京津冀地区乡村就业非农化率每提高1个单位,农民收入增长9.215个单位,I、II、III、V区就业非农化对农民收入的弹性系数分别为29.986、-23.605、-10.388、9.951,IV区两者之间关系不显著;③ 依据不同地域类型乡村非农就业与农民增收的特征、机理与未来发展趋势,提炼了京津冀地区乡村振兴的四种地域模式,即就业平稳型+农工商主导、兼业型+现代农业主导、就业输出型+复合型特色农业主导、就业输出型+生态农旅主导。

Research of the regional mode of rural revitalization in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region: Based on the spatial effect between rural off-farm employment and farmers' income growth

Illustrating the dialectical relationship between rural off- farm employment, farmers' income growth and agricultural and rural development, and constructing regional modes of rural revitalization are of great significance for orderly promoting urbanization, and realizing the prosperity of farmers’ living and rural revitalization. This article first divides the counties of Beijing- Tianjin- Hebei Region into five types of region: Beijing and Tianjin suburban region (I), Northeast Hebei region (II), Central Hebei Plain region (III), Taihang Mountains region (IV) and Bashang region (V). Then it measures the spatial effect of rural off-farm employment on farmers' income growth by using panel data of the counties of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region and Spatial Regression Model. Finally, this paper refines the regional modes of rural revitalization in the study region. The results show that: (1) from 2000 to 2016, the rural per capita net income increased from 2486 yuan to 11920 yuan, while the rate of rural off-farm employment rose from 38.9% to 57.5%; the order of the rate of rural off- farm employment in five types of region was I>III>II>IV>V, and the order of the rural per capita net income was I>II>III>IV>V; (2) the rural off-farm employment effectively promotes the farmers' income growth; the process of rural off-farm employment leads to the change of farmers' income structure showing a trend of shift from one to another: the stronger the role of off- farm employment income in farmers' income growth, the weaker the role of agricultural income in farmers' income growth; every unit increase of the rate of rural off-farm employment leads to 9.215 units increase of farmers’ income; the elasticity coefficients of the rate of rural off-farm employment to farmers’ income are 29.986, -23.605, -10.388, and 9.951 in I, II, III, and V region, respectively, and there is no significant relationship between them in IV region; (3) according to the characteristic, mechanism and future development trend of rural off-farm employment and farmers' income growth in different regional types, four regional modes of rural revitalization in this region are refined, namely, stable employment + agriculture - commerce- industry dominated type, concurrent operation + modern agriculture dominated type, employment export + compound featured agriculture dominated type, employment export + compound ecological agriculture - tourism dominated type. Finally, this article puts forward the guarantee mechanism of rural off-farm employment and talent cultivation and industrial integration in order to promote the positive interaction between rural off-farm employment and farmers' income growth.