俄罗斯东北航道沿线港口发展潜力评价

随着北极冰层不断融化，未来东北航道商业化通航成为可能，俄罗斯东北航道沿线港口发展潜力和开发价值日益受到关注。本研究构建包括自然条件、基础设施、港口运营、腹地环境、地理位置等5方面内容的评价指标体系，运用层次分析法对俄罗斯东北航道沿线13个港口的发展潜力进行评价。研究结果表明：（1）对港口发展潜力影响程度由大到小依次是地理位置、腹地环境、自然条件、基础设施、港口运营因素。（2）可将港口发展潜力由强到弱划分为3个等级：第一等级包括摩尔曼斯克、阿尔汉格尔斯克、普罗维杰尼亚、季克西，第二等级为纳里扬马尔、萨别塔、佩韦克、乌厄连、阿姆杰尔马，第三等级为迪克森、哈坦加、维尔霍扬斯克、安巴奇克。（3）港口发展潜力自西向东大致呈现“W”型格局，摩尔曼斯克、季克西、普罗维杰尼亚的港口发展潜力较大，分别位于俄罗斯东北航道沿岸的西、中、东段位置，位于三者之间的港口发展潜力较小。

Evaluation of port development potential along the Northern Sea Route in Russia

As the Arctic ice sheet continues to melt, the possibility of commercial navigation in the Northern Sea Route increases. How to identify the strength and potential level of the port, and promote the development of ports along the Northern Sea Route, is of great significance.Considering the particularity of ports along the Northern Sea Route in Russia, the paper constructs an evaluation index system including the content of five respects namely natural conditions, infrastructure, port operation, hinterland environment and geographical location; 17 secondary indicators such as climate conditions, berth depth, length of port shoreline, port yard area, hinterland range and strategic value and so on, applies the analytic hierarchy process to evaluate the port development potential of 13 ports along the Northern Sea Route in Russia. The results show that: (1)The order from largest to smallest of influence on port development potential is geographical location, hinterland environment, natural conditions, infrastructure and port operation. Among them, the geographical location is highly correlated with the port's development potential. The port to be classified as high-level development potential category occupies a superior location and a strong throat. It is the only place for Pacific ships to enter and exit the Northern Sea Route. (2)There are three levels of port development potential. The first level includes the port of Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, Provideniya, Tiksi; The second level includes the port of Naryan-Mar, Sabeta, Pevek, Uelen, Amderma; The third level consists of Dikson, Hatanga, Vilhoyansk, Ambachik. (3)The port development potential generally presents a "W" pattern from west to east. Murmansk, Tiksi and Provideniya are located in the west, the middle and the east of Northern Sea Route in Russia with great port development potential, the development potential of other ports are relatively small.