中国崛起与世界贸易网络演化：1980—2018年

随着网络分析方法的发展,利用社团检测和社交网络分析研究世界贸易网络成为当前重要的前沿问题。但目前国内外的研究多为短期尺度,中长期尺度研究亟需更新。当前世界经济发展不确定性要素增多,“一带一路”建设正进入深耕细作的阶段,分析20世纪80年代以来国际政治经济局势的转变以及发达国家与发展中国家的地位更替的长尺度变化,有利于揭示世界贸易网络的中长期演变趋势,并为中国“一带一路”建设提供历史启示。论文主要基于国际货币基金组织(IMF)的贸易方向统计数据库(DOTS),首先总结了1980—2018年世界贸易发展3大历史阶段的基本特征,然后研究了20世纪80年代以来的世界贸易网络中组团及国家地位的演变。研究发现：① 世界政治经济格局变化和技术进步对世界贸易网络影响深远。20世纪80年代以来资本主义的生产方式由福特制向后福特制的转变、新自由主义的推广、数字技术的大规模发展以及发展中国家的崛起对全球贸易空间格局产生了深远的影响,中国的崛起是全球贸易网络变化重要的力量。② 从Top1贸易网络上看,世界贸易格局呈现出“稳中有变”的演化趋势。世界贸易网络中,欧洲部分的德国、法国和俄罗斯组团相对稳定,而英国和意大利组团地位不断下降;美国主导了亚太部分,澳大利亚组团较为稳定,日本组团地位下降。③ 印度、巴西和南非等发展中国家的崛起,导致世界经济和贸易格局的重大变化,这些国家近年来成为了新兴的区域性贸易中心。④ 随着经济高速发展,中国在世界贸易中的地位迅速上升,成为了超过美国的世界贸易组团核心。最后,简要讨论了中长期尺度贸易网络研究对“一带一路”建设的历史启示。

The rise of China and change of the global trade network during 1980-2018

With the development of the network analysis methods, studying global trade network by community detection and social network analysis (SNA) has become the frontiers in trade-related fields. However, most of the present research was of short temporal scale. Long-term studies are needed particularly given the growing uncertainties in today's world economy. Under the implementation of the Belt and Road initiative, analyzing the dynamics of the world politics and economy after the 1980s as well as the long-term shifts of the role of countries are of great significance for revealing the evolution of global trade network and thus contributing to the improvement of the initiative. Based on the Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) database by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), this article summarized three main stages in the global trade history after 1980 and illustrated and analyzed the change of the global trade network. The study found that: 1) The changes of world politics and economy and the improvement of technologies greatly influenced the global trade. The transformation from Fordism to Post-Fordism, the extension of neoliberalism, the development of digital technology, and the rise of developing countries represented by China have profoundly reshaped global trade. 2) The Top 1 network indicates that the change of global trade is relatively stable despite some shifts. In the European part of the global trade network, German bloc, French bloc, and Russian bloc are somewhat steady, while the United Kingdom bloc and Italian bloc have declined. In the Asia-Pacific part, the United States always played the leading role, the Australian bloc remained unchanged, but the Japanese bloc experienced a recession. 3) The rise of developing countries, such as India, Brazil, and South Africa, led to the great transformation of the world economy and trade network. These countries have recently become the regional trading centers. 4) With a high-speed development of the economy, China saw a dramatic rise in global trade and has become the center of the largest global trade bloc, exceeding the United States. Finally, this article briefly discussed the importance of long-term trade network research for the Belt and Road initiative.