中国种植业专业化发展的时空格局研究

基于1978—2017年中国种植业发展的专业化测算,本研究对中国种植业发展的时空特征进行了回顾和评价,创新性地运用聚类分析的方法对中国种植业的发展阶段进行划分,总结了各阶段中国种植业的发展特征。研究发现：① 各省区市种植业的专业化系数FR_i逐步增强;相较于全国平均水平,东北地区和东部地区的专业化系数FR_i具有较好的基础和较快的增速,中部地区和西南地区则刚好相反,西北地区的基础及增速与全国平均水平持平。② 6种农产品的地方化系数FI_j均获得不同程度的增长,粮食、棉花和油料增长较快,糖料、水果和蔬菜增长较慢;糖料为高度地方化农产品,棉花和水果长期表现为高度地方化,粮食、蔬菜和油料属于低度地方化农产品。③ 相较于农业总产值10.66%的年均增速,中国种植业发展的国家专业化系数F_mn保持平稳而缓慢的增长趋势,年均增长仅2.83%。④ 可将1978—2017年中国种植业发展划分为四个阶段,即1978—1983年的第一阶段为奠定制度基础阶段、1984—1995年的第二阶段为稳步复苏和扩张阶段、1996—2014年的第三阶段为市场化改革和产业化发展深入阶段、2015—2017年的第四阶段为追求全面发展的改革创新阶段。本研究对于梳理改革开放以来中国种植业发展具有重要的指导意义,可为种植业专业化相关政策的制定提供参考依据。

Research on spatio-temporal pattern of specialized development of Chinese planting industry

Based on the specialized calculation of planting industry development from 1978 to 2017 in China, the paper reviews and evaluates the temporal and spatial features of Chinese planting industry, divides the development of Chinese planting industry into several stages by using cluster analysis creatively, and summarizes the development characteristics of each stage. The main contents and results are summed up as follows: (1) The specialization coefficient of the planting industry (FR_i) increases gradually in each Province (Municipality, Municipality); compared to the national average of specialization coefficient, Northeast China and Eastern China with higher value of specialization coefficient also grow faster, Central China and Southeast China are just the opposite, and Northwest China closes to the foundation and growth rate of national average. (2) The planting areas for sugar crop, grain, cotton, vegetable, oil crop and fruit accounts for more than 91% of the total planting area of crops in China, so it is representative and feasible to choose these 6 agricultural crops as the research object. Location coefficient of the six agricultural products(FI_j) increases in different degrees, while grain, cotton and oil crop grow faster and sugar crop, fruit, vegetable more slowly. Sugar crop is highly localized agricultural product, while cotton and fruit are characterized by highly localized agricultural products long term; grain, vegetable and oil crop belongs to agricultural product with low localization. (3) National specialization coefficient of planting industry (F_mn) keeps steady and slow growth with the average annual growth of 2. 83%, comparing with the total annual agricultural output value about 10. 66%. (4) The characteristics of policy system and emphases of Chinese planting industry are different in each development stage. It could be divided into four stages of planting industry development in China from 1978 to 2017, namely, the first stage from 1978 to 1983 characterized by laying the institutional foundation, the second stage from 1984 to 1995 characterized by steady recovery and expansion, the third stage from 1996 to 2014 with the in-depth phase of market-oriented reform and industrialization, the fourth stage from 2015 to 2017 accompanied by reforming and innovation of pursuing all-round development. This paper, meaning important guiding significance for sorting out Chinese planting industry development since the reform and opening-up, can provide reference for the development of relevant policies for specialization of planting industry.