中国区域发展格局演变过程与调控

2018年底中国人均GDP达到64520元（将近10000美元）。世界各国发展历程和区域发展差距倒“U”字型曲线表明,中国区域发展格局演变将步入从区域间经济发展差距持续扩大转向缩小的拐点区段。本文讨论了1978年以来拐点发生前40年间中国区域发展格局演变过程,① 处于发展上游（前8位最发达的省区）和下游（后8位欠发达省区）省区人均GDP的差距从1978年的407元增加到2018年的53817元;② 城市化和经济发展的重心在外向型经济、非公有经济的拉动下,呈顺时针方向发生旋转,中国东南地区成为经济加速集聚的区域;③ 中国区域发展格局形成以京津冀、长三角、珠三角、成渝地区四大核心区域为顶点、相邻区域的连线为边界合围成的菱形结构,其GDP占全国比重稳定在75%左右。2020年中国区域发展格局应进入演变的拐点,一方面表现为区域经济差距的缩小,另一方面则是从非高质量的区域发展向高质量区域发展的转变。区域高质量发展是在经济效益持续增长过程中,生态效益和社会效益将相向基本同步的增长过程,并呈现出因地域功能不同而分异的区域高质量发展模式。未来30年,按照促进区域均衡（协调）发展和高质量发展的双重目标要求,应把重点城市化地区、相对欠发达地区、重要安全保障区等三类区域以及区域间互动关系等为调控和优化中国区域发展格局的重点,而建立以主体功能区划—战略—规划—制度为统领的空间治理体系,将成为调控和优化区域发展格局的基本保障。

The evolution process and regulation of China's regional development pattern

China's per capita GDP has reached 64520 yuan (about 10,000 US dollars). The development process of countries around the world and the inverted U-shaped curve of regional development gaps indicate that the evolution of China's regional development pattern will step into an inflection point segment and that the development gap between regions has witnessed a switch from continuing widening to narrowing. In this paper, we discuss the evolution process of China's regional development pattern over the 40 years since 1978 before the inflection point: (1) The gap in per capita GDP between the upstream areas (the top 9 most developed provinces) and the downstream (the last 8 underdeveloped provinces) increased from 407 yuan in 1978 to 53817 yuan in 2018. (2) Under the pull of export-oriented economy and non-state-owned economy, the mean center of urbanization and economic development rotates in a clockwise direction. Southeast China has become an area with accelerated economic agglomeration. (3) China's regional development pattern has presented a diamond structure with the four core regions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and Chengdu-Chongqing as the apex and the connection of adjacent regions as the boundary. The GDP in these regions accounts for about 75% of the national total. In 2020, China's regional development pattern will enter an inflection point of evolution. The form is characterized by the narrowing of the regional economic gap, which is essentially a transition from non-high-quality regional development to high-quality regional development. The high-quality development of the region is a process of growth in which the ecological and social benefits will be basically synchronized in the process of sustained economic growth, and a regional high-quality development model that is differentiated by geographical functions is presented. In the next 30 years, the regulation and optimization of China's regional development pattern should focus on three types of regions: key urbanization regions, relatively underdeveloped regions, and key areas for security, as well as inter-regional interactions according to the dual objectives of promoting regional balanced (coordinated) development and high-quality development. Establishing a space governance system with the major function zoning-strategy-planning-system as the mainstay will become the basic guarantee for regulating and optimizing the regional development pattern.