长株潭地区耕地压力的时空变化及驱动因素分析

利用1997-2010年长株潭地区的土地利用现状数据和社会经济数据，运用耕地压力指数模型和主成分分析法分析了长株潭地区耕地压力的时空分布及驱动因素。结果表明:（1）长株潭地区耕地总量总体呈阶梯减少趋势；（2）整体看，长株潭地区耕地压力指数小于1，耕地压力不明显，但耕地压力指数呈上升-下降-上升走势，耕地压力呈上升势头。（3）具体看，长株潭地区耕地压力:长沙市>株洲市>湘潭市；并且县域空间差异明显，尤其是城区耕地压力指数远大于1，表明城区耕地压力非常大，其他县市压力相对较小。（4）人口快速增长、经济跨越式快速发展、农业机械化普及与农业投入的增加等4个方面是长株潭地区耕地压力变化的主要驱动因素。研究成果有利于提高人们对长株潭地区的耕地保护意识，为促进区域土地合理利用规划，实现两型发展提供科学依据。 

Spatial-temporal change and driving factors of cultivated land pressure in the Chang-Zhu-Tan area

Based on the survey data on land use and social-economic statistical data from 1997 to 2010, this paper analyzes the spatial-temporal change and driving factors of cultivated land pressure in the Chang-Zhu-Tan area using the index model of cultivated land pressure and principal component analysis. The results show that the Chang-Zhu-Tan regional cultivated land tends to reduce overall in a step-like manner. As a whole, the cultivated land pressure index of the Chang-Zhu-Tan area is less than 1, implying the cultivated land pressure is not obvious. But the cultivated land pressure index exhibits an up-down-up process, with a rising tendency. Specifically, the cultivated land pressure of Changsha city is larger than Zhuzhou city, and that of Zhuzhou larger than Xiangtan city. And there are obvious differences among counties, especially in urban areas. The cultivated land pressure index of urban areas is much greater than 1, showing that the cultivated land pressure of urban areas is very big. Other counties have relatively smaller pressure. Rapid population growth, fast economic development, the popularization of agricultural mechanization and the increase of agricultural inputs are the main driving factors for the cultivated land pressure in the Chang-Zhu-Tan area. The study results will be helpful to raise awareness to protect the cultivated land, and provide a scientific basis for promoting regional land reasonable use planning and realize two-type development in the Chang-Zhu-Tan area.