Spatial and temporal change in landslide hazard by future climate change scenarios using probabilistic-based frequency ratio model |
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| Authors: | Lee Moung-Jin Song Won-Kyong Won Joong-Sun Park Inhye |
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| Institution: | 1. Korea Adaptation Center for Climate Change, Korea Environment Institute, Seoul, Korea.;2. Department of Earth System Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea.;3. Department of Geoinformatics, University of Seoul, Seoul, Republic of Korea. |
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| Abstract: | The aims of this study were to apply, verify and compare a frequency ratio model for landslide hazards, considering future climate change and using a geographic information system in Inje, Korea. Data for the future climate change scenario (A1B), topography, soil, forest, land cover and geology were collected, processed and compiled in a spatial database. The probability of landslides in the study area in target years in the future was then calculated assuming that landslides are triggered by a daily rainfall threshold. Landslide hazard maps were developed for the two study areas, and the frequency ratio for one area was applied to the other area as a cross-check of methodological validity. Verification results for the target years in the future were 82.32–84.69%. The study results, showing landslide hazards in future years, can be used to help develop landslide management plans. |
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| Keywords: | future climate change scenarios frequency ratio GIS landslide hazard map |
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