Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the Horn of Africa based on seismotectonic regionalisation

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for the Horn of Africa is presented. Our seismicity database consists of a revised and up-to-date regional catalogue compiled from different agencies, checked for completeness with respect to time and homogenized with respect to magnitude (M_s). The seismic source zones are based on our present day knowledge of the regional seismotectonics. Among the results we present regional hazard maps for 0.01 annual probability for intensity and Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and hazard curves and response spectra for six economical significant sites within the region. The model uncertainties with respect to seismicity are analysed in a novel approach and form part of a sensitivity analysis that quantifies our PSHA modelling uncertainties.

For 0.01 annual probability we find randomly oriented horizontal PGA that exceed just 0.2 g and MM-scale intensity VIII in the Afar depression and southern Sudan. Uncertainties amount to 20% g PGA in some cases, mainly due to attenuation uncertainties. Intensity uncertainties seldom exceed 0.5 intensity units. Relatively large seismic hazard is found for Djibouti (VIII for 0.01 annual probability), slightly lower for the port of Massawa (between VII and VIII for 0.01 annual probability) and low for the port of Assab (between VI and VII for 0.01 annual probability).