户籍制度视角下的江苏省人口时空格局响应

以江苏省为例，选取人口密度为基础数据，以县域为研究单元，通过空间自相关、重心迁移以及注入脉冲响应分析，刻画江苏省人口时空格局与户籍制度之间的时空响应关系及趋势。结果表明：1990-2010年江苏省人口格局整体保持“南高北低”的态势，该现象与社会经济发展水平呈正相关关系；人口密度相似的地区在空间上呈集聚分布，并呈明显的沿江化特征；各县市对户籍制度改革的响应具有地域性，南北响应差异逐渐缩小；人口空间格局对户籍制度的响应具有滞后性，速度呈现出由加快到平稳的态势。在此基础上，根据研究结论提出3点建议：第一，在改革思路上实现“两保两新”，阶梯式、差别化赋予权利；其次，积极推进苏北地区的社会保障体系改革；最后，通过产业发展上的“以业控人”和城市发展上的合理规划、科学布局防止流动人口加重“城市病”。

Response of Temporal-Spatial Population Pattern to the Household Register System in Jiangsu Province

Taking county as research unit, with the data of population density, the paper analyzes the response relation between spatial -temporal pattern of population and household registration system in Jiangsu Province, using the methods of spatial autocorrelation, gravity transfer and injection pulse response analyses. The results show that: from 1990 to 2010 the population pattern in Jiangsu remained a phenomenon of "High in south and low in north", which had positive correlation to the level of economic and social development; the regions of similar population density were distributed in a cluster form, and spread along the rivers; the responses of the counties to the reform of the household registration system were different, but the difference narrowed gradually; the response of spatial pattern of population to the census register system had a lagged feature, and the response speed accelerated first then tended to be stable. On the basis of the results, the paper puts forward three suggestions: Firstly, realizing the idea of “two confirmed and two new” in the reform, conferring rights in a hierarchy and differentiation way; Secondly, promoting energetically the social security system reform in the northern area of the province; Finally, controlling the population through development of industries, and making reasonable planning on urban development and allocation of population, so as to prevent the floating population from aggravating “urban disease”.