塔克拉玛干地区近40a来的冷暖变化

利用塔克拉玛干地区、周围山区及相邻地区的48个气象站近40a的温度资料,分析塔克拉玛干地区年与四季冷暖变化的阶段、周期、趋势,比较与其周围山区及相邻地区的相关性,探讨与其欧亚环流指数的关系,得到5点统计结论:(1)区域平均温度序列对该区的冷暖变化具有较好的代表性;(2)区域平均温度序列具有各自不同的冷暖阶段及变化周期,其中年温与冬温具有显著的变暖趋势,且变暖的幅度冬季约为年的3倍;(3)与周围山区站的相关性,以托云同步性较好;(4)与相邻地区温度变化的相关性,以甘肃为最好;(5)年温变化与欧亚年平均经向环流指数具有显著的负相关性,其秋季温度与10~11月份的纬向环流指数具有显著的正相关性。

TEMPERATURE VARIATION IN THE RECENT 40 YEARS IN TAKLIMAKAN AREA

Using the temperature data in recent 40 years of 48 meteorological station, the paper analizes the stage, period and trend of temperature change, and compares the correlation of temperature change in Taklimakan area with around mountains and adjacent areas, and discusses the relationship between Euroasian circulation index and temperature change in the studied area. The results are as follows:(1) The annual and seasonal mean temperature sequences of this area have better reflected the warm-cold changes in the area.(2) The annual and seasonal temperature change have different warm-cold stages and change periods. The temperature change annual and in Winter have significant warming trend and the changing range in Winter is about three times as much as that of the annual. In recent 30 years, the annual temperature has increased 0.54℃ and the Winter temperature has increased 1.7℃.(3) The correlation of the temperature change in Taklimakan area with around mountains and adjacent area is better at Toyun station.(4) The correlation of the temperature change in Taklimakan area with adjacent areas is the best at Gansu province, second at Northern Xinjiang and the worst at Qinghai province. (5) There is significant negative correlation between annual temperature change in Taklimakan area and Euroasian annual mean longitudinal circulation index, and significant positive correlation between autumn temperature change and latitudinal circulation index from October to November.