Propagation of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections: The Drag-Based Model

We present the “Drag-Based Model” (DBM) of heliospheric propagation of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The DBM is based on the hypothesis that the driving Lorentz force, which launches a CME, ceases in the upper corona and that beyond a certain distance the dynamics becomes governed solely by the interaction of the ICME and the ambient solar wind. In particular, we consider the option where the drag acceleration has a quadratic dependence on the ICME relative speed, which is expected in a collisionless environment, where the drag is caused primarily by emission of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves. In this paper we present the simplest version of DBM, where the equation of motion can be solved analytically, providing explicit solutions for the Sun–Earth ICME transit time and impact speed. This offers easy handling and straightforward application to real-time space-weather forecasting. Beside presenting the model itself, we perform an analysis of DBM performances, applying a statistical and case-study approach, which provides insight into the advantages and drawbacks of DBM. Finally, we present a public, DBM-based, online forecast tool.