Impact of the unpredictable changes in agricultural groundwater use on long-term sustainable exploitation: the case study of Bouhefna-Haffouz aquifer system,central Tunisia

Long-term exploitation schemes in many regions are often based solely on hydrodynamic factors, while the agricultural use of groundwater undergoes significant changes over time. The Bouhefna-Haffouz aquifer system in central Tunisia is one of those cases where an aquifer exploitation scheme was well designed hydrodynamically to address the political needs at the time. Fifty years later, a numerical groundwater model has been conducted to assess the sustainability of the scheme. Results show that the scheme aimed to lower the groundwater level to reduce overflow to Merguellil Wadi and maintain it at a level that benefits agricultural profitability. This caused loss of the Merguellil baseflow, forcing farmers to switch from traditional irrigation canals to deep wells and motor pumps, thereby disrupting the hydrological budget even further. The numerical model indicates that the flow to the wadi reached zero in 1978, the average flow by vertical leakage decreased from 8 hm³ in 1970 to 2 hm³ in 2020, and the horizontal percolation between the regional aquifer units increased from 1 hm³ in 1970 to 6 hm³ in 2020. Although the groundwater exploitation scheme was not previously considered a factor in local hydrological changes, the results of this study demonstrate the significant impact of societal behavior following the scheme’s implementation on the hydrological budget of Merguellil Wadi.