洪涝灾害风险评估与分区研究进展

在全球气候变化和城市化进程不断加快的背景下,城市洪涝灾害频发,造成严重的经济损失和人员伤亡问题。对近年来中国典型城市洪涝灾害进行系统整理介绍,说明洪涝灾害带来的人员伤亡和经济损失巨大。风险评估作为一种非工程性防洪措施,是城市洪涝风险管理的首要工作,精确、高效的把握洪灾过程等特征可以为防灾减灾工作提供科学依据。对城市洪涝风险评估与分区的概念和内容进行系统梳理,常用的风险评估方法有数理统计法、不确定性分析法、遥感影像评估法、指标体系评估法、情景模拟评估法;风险分区常用方法有阈值法、经验公式法和物理机制法。论述了城市洪涝风险评估与分区常用方法的应用范围、优缺点及其发展前景。

Research progress in flood disaster risk assessment and zoning

Under the background of global climate change and accelerating urbanization, urban flood disasters occur frequently, causing serious economic losses and casualties. This paper systematically introduces the flood disasters in China"s typical cities in recent years, and shows that the flood disasters bring huge casualties and economic losses. As a non-engineering flood control measure, risk assessment is the primary work of urban flood risk management. Accurately and efficiently grasping the characteristics of flood process can provide scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation. The concept and content of urban flood risk assessment and zoning are systematically sorted out. The commonly used risk assessment methods include mathematical statistics, uncertainty analysis, remote sensing image assessment, index system assessment and scenario simulation assessment. The common methods of risk partition include threshold method, empirical formula method and physical mechanism method. The application range, advantages and disadvantages of the common methods of urban flood risk assessment and zoning are discussed.