校园雨涝灾害风险因素影响机制研究

洪涝灾害作为当前最严重的水患问题影响着校园安全，但目前针对该尺度下的风险研究较少。如何降低灾害风险，提升韧性成为当下校园可持续研究的重要议题。以HER框架为基础，在现有研究的基础上综合运用DEMATEL-ISM法，明确各因素间的影响机制及作用程度，构建多级递阶结构模型。结果表明：（1）校园雨涝灾害风险影响机制为五级三阶结构，其中排水设施排涝能力是最关键的根本致因，极端日降水量、暴雨频率、相对高程差是最有效的直接致因。（2）校园雨涝灾害风险最关键的作用路径是排水设施排涝能力-排水管网设置率-校园排水设施维养频率-植被覆盖率-暴雨频率。研究可为校园雨涝灾害防治提供参考。

Study on the influence mechanism of campus rainfall and flooding risk factors and rainfall management

China is currently in a period of hard work for high-quality modern development, and urban safety and stability are important prerequisites for development. Flooding, as the most prominent flooding problem in China, poses a serious challenge to urban ecological safety. As an important component unit of cities, campuses are also frequently subjected to rain and flooding disasters. How to reduce the risk of campus rainfall and flooding, improve the disaster prevention system and enhance campus resilience has become an important topic of campus sustainability research nowadays. At present, the research on campus rainfall and flooding hazards is mainly carried out in the fields of disaster simulation and disaster prevention landscape planning from the perspectives of geography and disaster science, but there is a lack of research on the impact factors of campus rainfall and flooding hazards and their intrinsic mechanisms of action. Therefore, this paper integrates the DEMATEL-ISM method to clarify the influence mechanism and the degree of action among the factors and construct a multi-level recursive structural model. The results show that the factors influencing the resilience of campus rainfall and flooding can be divided into five levels and three order structures, among which extreme daily precipitation is the most critical fundamental causative factor, and land cover type, population density, per capita GDP and medical capacity are the most effective direct causative factors. The study can provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of campus rainfall and flooding hazards, and contribute to the sustainable development of campuses.