Prediction of Space Weather Using an Asymmetric Cone Model for Halo CMEs |
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| Authors: | G Michalek N Gopalswamy S Yashiro |
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| Institution: | (1) Astronomical Observatory of Jagiellonian University, Cracow, Poland;(2) Solar System Exploration Division, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, USA;(3) Center for Solar and Space Weather, Catholic University of America, Washington, USA |
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| Abstract: | Halo coronal mass ejections (HCMEs) are responsible of the most severe geomagnetic storms. A prediction of their geoeffectiveness
and travel time to Earth’s vicinity is crucial to forecast space weather. Unfortunately, coronagraphic observations are subjected
to projection effects and do not provide true characteristics of CMEs. Recently, Michalek (Solar Phys.
237, 101, 2006) developed an asymmetric cone model to obtain the space speed, width, and source location of HCMEs. We applied this technique
to obtain the parameters of all front-sided HCMEs observed by the SOHO/LASCO experiment during a period from the beginning
of 2001 until the end of 2002 (solar cycle 23). These parameters were applied for space weather forecasting. Our study finds
that the space speeds are strongly correlated with the travel times of HCMEs to Earth’s vicinity and with the magnitudes related
to geomagnetic disturbances. |
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| Keywords: | Sun: solar activity Sun: coronal mass ejections Sun: space weather |
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