用短临地震活动性资料探讨中强地震地点和时间预报

起伏加剧、临界慢化和起伏加剧时段所显示的复杂系统宏观有序性是现代统计物理学中突变事件发生前的临界指标．将上述指标应用于中、强地震短临预报研究．研究表明，上述３项指标在短临阶段（主震前１～２个月）地震活动性资料中同样存在．用前２项指标可以预测主震发生的几个可能日期，用后１项指标可以确定未来主震的位置．

THE SITE AND OCCURRENCE TIME PREDICTION OF MEDIUM AND STRONG EARTHQUAKES BASED ON THE SHORT IMPENDING SEISMICITY DATA

The fluctuation aggravation,critical slow down and macroscopic ordering exhibited by the complex system in the fluctuation intensification stage are critical indexes before abrupt events in the modern statistical physics.The indexes are used in the short impending prediction study of medium and strong earthquakes.The results indicate that the indexes also exist in the seismicity data in short impending stage.To use the former two indexes can predict several possible occurrence dates of main shock and to use the latter index can determine the main shock epicenter.