基于ARIMA模型的卫星钟差短期预报研究

卫星钟差的精度直接影响导航定位的性能。本文针对不同类型的星载原子钟,采用ARIMA时间序列模型分别对1 d的IGS 5 min、30 s采样间隔的精密卫星钟差产品进行建模,并作6 h、一天的短期预报。结果表明,铷钟的预报精度达到了亚纳秒级,铯钟的预报精度处于纳秒级,并且原始钟差产品的采样间隔对卫星钟差预报精度有一定的影响。

Study on Short-Term Prediction for Satellite Clock Bias Based on ARIMA Model

The precision of satellite clock bias has a significant impact on the capacity of navigation and positioning system .Based on the space atomic clocks from different types , this paper used the ARIMA time series model to predict the short -term (6h and one day) satellite clock error by adopting IGS 5min and 30s -interval precise satellite clock products on one day .Results show that, the prediction accuracy of rubidium clock can reach sub nanosecond level ;caesium clock is at the nanosecond level .Moreover, the sam-ple interval of original satellite clock products has effect on the precision of satellite clock error prediction .