多层次格点资料相似离度动态综合做广东多站点长期趋势预报

介绍一种长期趋势预报方法，该法结合预报经验，按照形势变化特征对５００和１００ｈＰａ高度，太平洋海面温度等多层次月平均格点资料进行分区统计，然后用相似离度理论做计算。其中，既同时考虑空间多层次的气象信息，又从连续几个月的信息变化去进行动态的相似综合，力图使相似比较中的片面性得到改善。

LONG-TERM MULTI-STATION TENDENCY FORECAST FOR THE PROVINCE OF GUANGDONG USING DYNAMIC COMBINATION OF MULTILEVEL GRID DATA IN TERMS OF SIMILAR DISCRETE VALUES

A long term tendency forecast method is introduced.With the forecaster's experiences and statistic,divisioned study of multi-layered monthly mean grid data of 500 and 100hPa geopotential height and Pacific SST based on changes in pattern characteristics,computation is done by the theory of similar discrete value.It is the purpose of the method to improve on the one-sided emphasis arisen from similarity comparison by both taking into account information on multiple spatial levels and involving comprehension in terms of dynamic similaring for its change over a period as long as a number of months.It proves satisfactory in forecasting experiment with long-term tendency of precipitation and temperature in Guangdong.