应用数值预报的结果作西太平洋台风路径统计预报的尝试

本文应用台风位置以北的27个网格点上的数值预报位势高度和一些持续性因子作为预报因子,采用逐步回归方法,分别建立了初始时刻后各时段内的台风位移和台风数值预报位移误差订正量的回归方程。但由于样本较少(仅84个样本),预告的稳定性可能会受到一定的影响。

A TEST OF STATISTICAL FOR ECASTING SCHEME FORWESTERN PACIFIC TYPHOON TRACKS USING NUMERICAL FORECASTING RESULTS AS PREDICTORS

A The multiple linear regression equations derived by MOS technique were tested for forecasting Western Pacific typhoon tracks. Numerically predicted 500 mb geopotential height at 27 grid points in the north of typhoon and parameters showing the state of typhoon were selected as predictors. Two kinds of regression equations derived with different predictands were described. In the first kind, the predictands are the displacement of typhoon at intervals of 12 hrs. In the second kind, the predictands are the correction amount of the displacement error, of typhoon numerically predicted. But there were only 84 statistical samples,, therefor it might have some influence on the forecasting stability of the scheme.