Assessment of flood forecasting lead time based on generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation approach

Real time updating of rainfall-runoff (RR) models is traditionally performed by state-space formulation in the context of flood forecasting systems. In this paper, however, we examine applicability of generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach in real time modification of forecasts. Real time updating and parameter uncertainty analysis was conducted for Abmark catchment, a part of the great Karkheh basin in south west of Iran. A conceptual-distributed RR model, namely ModClark, was used for basin simulation, such that the basin’s hydrograph was determined by the superposition of runoff generated by individual cells in a raster-based discretization. In real time updating of RR model by GLUE method, prior and posterior likelihoods were computed using forecast errors that were obtained from the results of behavioral models and real time recorded discharges. Then, prior and posterior likelihoods were applied to modify forecast confidence limits in each time step. Calibration of parameters was performed using historical data while distribution of parameters was modified in real time based on new data records. Two scenarios of rainfall forecast including prefect-rainfall-forecast and no-rainfall-forecast were assumed in absence of a robust rainfall forecast model in the study catchment. The results demonstrated that GLUE application could offer an acceptable lead time for peak discharge forecast at the expense of high computational demand.