“一带一路”沿线国家适应气候变化的技术需求评估

“一带一路”沿线国家受气候变化影响严重，亟需从其他国家转移适当的适应气候变化技术。技术需求评估是有效开展技术转移的必要前提。本研究利用“一带一路”沿线国家完成提交给《联合国气候变化框架公约》的技术需求评估（TNA）报告，在合作专利分类（CPC）框架下建立适应优先技术需求数据库，并根据技术需求的提及次数、技术需求的国家数目、技术需求的GDP覆盖范围以及技术惠及人口4个指标，分别从技术和地区两个角度对“一带一路”沿线国家的适应技术需求开展评估。结果发现：一方面，农林牧副渔生产中的适应技术（Y02A-40)，集水、节水与高效利用水的技术（Y02A-20)，沿海地区与江河流域的适应技术（Y02A-10）与对适应气候变化有间接贡献的技术（Y02A-90）这4方面的适应技术是“一带一路”沿线国家普遍关切的技术需求。另一方面，不同地区的“一带一路”沿线国家因其特有的地理区位和社会经济情况不同而产生特殊的适应技术需求。大洋洲、拉丁美洲与加勒比地区以及亚洲地区部分国家由于国内基础设施受气候变化影响十分严重，提出了保护和改造基础设施建设的技术（Y02A-30）需求；受气候变化影响，高温和降水加剧了疾病在空气和水体的传播，因此亚洲地区，大洋洲、拉丁美洲与加勒比地区特别提出了应对极端天气、保护人类健康的技术（Y02A-50）需求。为促进“一带一路”沿线国家开展有效技术转移，提高应对气候变化能力，应加大对气候适应技术研发投入，以技术接受国的技术需求为基础，并高效利用现有的“一带一路”技术转移中心网络，开展技术转移活动。

Technology Needs Assessment for adaptation to climate change in the Belt and Road countries

Seriously vulnerable to climate change, the Belt and Road countries are in urgent need of adaptation technologies transferred from other countries to combat climate change. Assessment of technology needs is a prerequisite for successful technology transfer. In this paper, a database of adaptation technology needs was established, by utilizing the Technology Need Assessment (TNA) reports submitted by the Belt and Road countries under the Cooperative Patent Classification (CPC). Four indicators, (a) how many times a certain technology is requested, (b) the number of countries which put forward a certain technology, (c) the GDP a certain technology can cover, (d) the population a certain technology can benefit, and two analytical perspectives, both regional and technical, were used in evaluating the technology needs. Four kinds of adaptation technologies were determined to be of general concern: agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery production (Y02A-40), water harvesting, water conservation, and efficient water use (Y02A-20), adaptation technologies in coastal areas and river basins (Y02A-10), and technologies that contribute indirectly to climate change adaptation (Y02A-90). However, different Belt and Road countries have different adaptation technology needs due to their unique geographic location and socioeconomic circumstances. Oceania, Latin America and the Caribbean, and some Asian countries have raised concerns regarding the need for technologies for protecting and renovating their domestic infrastructure (Y02A-30) because their infrastructure is greatly affected by climate change. High temperatures and precipitation due to climate change have exacerbated disease outbreaks in water bodies and air, so Asia, Oceania, Latin America, and the Caribbean are in need of technologies to protect human health from extreme weather (Y02A-50). In order to facilitate effective technology transfer along the Belt and Road and improve countries’ ability to adapt to climate change, it is imperative to invest in the research and development of climate adaptation technologies, concentrating on the needs of technology recipient countries, and tap into the Belt and Road’s existing network of technology transfer centers.