基于国别地缘环境视角解析缅甸民主化改革进程

2021年2月缅甸军方再度接管国家政权后，其国内民主化改革进程戛然而止，再次引发学术界的广泛关注和讨论。然而，已有学者大多从政治、经济等单一性要素，或从多行为体间利益斗争的视角入手，缺乏多要素、多主体、多时空维度的综合分析视角对民主化改革进程的影响和未来前景的研究。随着地缘环境研究日益体现出跨尺度耦合、多元地缘体博弈和跨领域间互动等分析理念，本文将国别地缘环境分析理解为一个视角，构建其解读民主化改革的一般思路和框架；以缅甸为例，探讨不同时期缅甸地缘环境的情景特征及其对民主化改革进程的影响并预测其未来态势。研究得出：① 国别地缘环境视角可以被界定为跨尺度耦合下国内外多元地缘体利用跨领域间互动进行综合作用的情景分析。② 自1980年代以来，由于缅甸地缘环境从内乱外压、外压内稳到外稳内乱的演变，其民主化改革进程依次经历民主开启、转型过渡期、民主转型、民主巩固和民主倒退。③ 缅甸民主化改革的未来走向极为可能是在军方控制下民选政府与军方合作推进的适度改革。解析缅甸民主化改革进程不仅有利于帮助中国理解缅甸的政局变化进而构建和谐稳定的中缅关系，同时也能推动地缘环境的理论与应用研究，促进学术界对“应该推行怎样的民主化进程”这一问题的进一步思考。

The analysis of the process of Myanmar's democratization reform from the perspective of the national geo-setting

After Myanmar's military took over the state power in February 2021, the democratization process came to an abrupt end, which once again aroused wide attention and discussion in related academic circles. However, most of the existing studies have analyzed the causes and prospects of Myanmar's democratization process from the perspectives of political, economic, cultural and other structural factors, or from the perspectives of the interests of soldiers and the struggles among domestic and foreign actors, lacking in comprehensive analysis on the application of intersecting fields by domestic and foreign actors from the perspective of cross-scale coupling. As geo-setting research growingly reflects three characteristics, namely cross-scale coupling, multi-actor interaction and the multi-field intersection, this paper will firstly put forward an analytical framework of democratization based on the new national geo-setting perspective. Then, taking Myanmar as an example, the paper will explore the characteristics of Myanmar's geo-setting in different periods and its multi-dimensional influence on the democratization process, and forecast the trend of its democratization process in the future. The results are as follows: (1) The national geo-setting can be considered as a situation in which domestic and foreign geo-actors interact comprehensively with political, economic and other fields from the view of cross-scale coupling, thus influencing the democratization process. (2) Since the 1980s, the geo-setting of Myanmar has evolved from internal chaos and external pressure, external pressure and internal stability to external stability and internal chaos, which drove Myanmar's democratization reform through the stages of democratic initiation, transformation, consolidation and recession successively. (3) In the future, the democratization reform is most likely to be carried out through the cooperation between the elected government and the military under the military control. The analysis of the process of democratic reform in Myanmar is not only helpful for China to understand the political changes in Myanmar so as to build a harmonious and stable China-Myanmar relation, but also can promote the academic circle to further think about the issue of "what kind of democratization process should be put forward", and also promote the theoretical and applied research on the national geo-setting in the future.