IPCC AR6报告解读:强化技术和管理创新的交通运输部门减碳路径北大核心CSCD

IPCC第六次评估报告第三工作组报告交通运输章评估了该行业温室气体的减缓措施和转型路径。1990年以来,全球交通运输部门温室气体排放量一直增长,2019年已经成为全球第四大排放源,仅次于电力、工业以及农业、林业和其他土地利用(AFOLU)部门,其增长速度超过其他最终用途行业。报告强调了交通减排的重要性,主要的减排措施包括三方面:首先是减少需求,其次是对陆路交通部门进行脱碳,再次是对重型的水运和航空运输等进行脱碳。评估的多种燃料和动力技术处于不同的商业化水平,它们未来应用时间节点和规模各有不同。对于陆路交通来说,需要继续推进电气化;对于水运和航空来说需要进一步应用低碳技术,并优化国际管理机制;从中长期来看,所有部门都需要强调运输服务需求管理和运输效率的提升。情景相关的文献评述分析表明,全球温升目标要求全经济部门采取减排措施,特别是交通电气化的减排潜力在很大程度上取决于电力部门的脱碳。如果不采取减缓措施,交通运输部门排放在2050年可能增长65%(相对2010年);如果成功实施减缓战略,该部门的排放量将减少68%,这也与全球1.5℃温升目标要求相一致。关于这些减缓措施的分析和判断,对我国交通运输部门实现碳中和与碳达峰具有重要的参考意义。

Interpretation of IPCC AR6 report: transportation carbon emissions reduction pathways strengthening technology and management innovation

The Working Group III contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of IPCC emphasizes climate change mitigation. The Chapter Transport has provided an overview-based feasibility assessment of the measures to mitigate transport-related greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. The transport sector had been growing since 1990 and became the fourth largest source in 2019, only after electricity, industry, and the agriculture, forest and land use (AFOLU) sectors. The report focuses on reduction in traffic demand, decarbonization options for land-based transport, shipping and aviation, aiming to reduce transport-related GHG in developed countries and control its growth in developing countries. The different fuel and power technologies evaluated are at different levels of commercialization, with different application timings and scales in the future. Based on the multi-level perspective (MLP), the strategy of demand reduction and efficiency improvement is at the Meso-regime level and has not yet become mainstream. The strategy of land transportation electrification is shifting from the Meso-regime level to the Marco-landscape level. Alternative fuels for marine and aviation are only at the Micro-niche level, requiring deployment targets, regulatory changes, research and development programs and demonstration trials. For the first time, the IPCC separates the shipping and aviation sectors to discuss their GHG emissions trends and the decarbonization opportunities and challenges they face. In the medium to long term, all sectors need to emphasize the management of demand for transport services and the improvement of transport efficiency. Scenario literature suggests that global warming targets require economy-wide emission reduction measures, and the mitigation potential of transport electrification in particular depends heavily on the decarbonization of the power sector. Compared to 2010, transport-related emissions could increase by 65% in 2050 without mitigation measures while could reduce by 68% if the mitigation strategy is successfully deployed, which is also in line with the 1.5℃temperature rise target. These mitigation measures are of great significance for transportation in China to achieve emission peak and carbon neutrality.