交互作用视角下人口流动性与住房类型对城市入室盗窃空间格局的影响

已有研究发现社区住房类型对城市入室盗窃的空间格局有重要影响，但鲜有学者探讨位于不同人口流动程度社区环境中的不同住房对入室盗窃影响的差异。本研究以中国东南沿海城市ZG市为例，基于日常活动和社会失序等理论，以社区为分析单元，利用入室盗窃警情数据、第六次人口普查数据和兴趣点数据（Point of Interest, POI）,运用空间滞后负二项回归方法，分析人口流动性与住房类型的交互作用对入室盗窃空间格局的影响。结果表明：人口流动性高的社区入室盗窃率较高；自建住房比例对入室盗窃率有显著的正向影响，原公有住房比例和商品房比例则呈显著的抑制作用；交互变量的结果发现，人口流动性与不同类型住房变量的交互作用存在差异，其中，人口流动性与自建住房、经济适用房、原公有住房的交互变量对入室盗窃的发生具有显著的促进作用，而与商品房的交互对入室盗窃的影响并不显著。说明在探讨不同类型住房与入室盗窃的关系时，应重视其所在社区的人口流动程度的影响。

Effects of population mobility and housing type on spatial pattern of urban burglary from the perspective of interaction

It has been found that the type of community housing has an important impact on the spatial pattern of burglary in urban areas. However, few scholars have explored the difference of the impact of different housing types in different degrees of population mobility on burglary. This study takes ZG city, a coastal city in southeast China, as a research area. It is based on theories of routine activity theory, crime pattern theory, rational choice theory and social disorganization theory. This paper, taking community as the unit of analysis, adopts data of burglary, the sixth national census and Point of Interest (POI). The spatial lagged negative binomial regression method is used to analyze the impact of the interaction between community population mobility and housing types on the spatial pattern of burglary. Among them, the population mobility factors were extracted based on the proportion of migrant population and the proportion of renting houses. The results show that population mobility has a significant positive impact on burglary rate. There is a significant positive effect of the proportion of owner-built housing on the rate of burglary, and the proportion of former public owned housing and commercial housing has a significant inhibitory effect on the burglary rate. In addition, the impact of affordable housing on burglary is not significant. The results of the interaction variables found that the interaction coefficients of population mobility with different types of housing variables are varied. Among them, the interaction of population mobility with self-built housing, affordable housing and former public housing has a significant promoting effect on burglary rate, indicating that the higher the degree of population mobility, the greater the impact of these three types of housing on burglary. Nevertheless, the interaction effect of population mobility and commercial housing is not significant. This study proves that population mobility can further mediate the effects of different types of housing on burglary, and suggests that we should pay attention to the impact of the degree of population mobility in the community where different types of housing are located when discussing the relationship between different types of housing and burglary.