国际能源贸易依赖网络特征及替代关系研究：化石能源与可再生能源

随着可再生能源成为国际能源贸易重要增长点，国家和地区间的能源贸易依赖关系也随之变化。基于2011—2020年世界能源、经济及创新指数等数据，通过社会网络分析法阐释化石能源和可再生能源的贸易情况，探讨化石能源和可再生能源贸易依赖网络的演化过程，使用 QAP回归方法定量分析化石能源贸易依赖网络和可再生能源贸易依赖网络之间的关系。结果表明：在2011—2020年，化石能源贸易的稳定性较高，而可再生能源贸易发展迅速。可再生能源贸易依赖网络展现出更高的整体依赖程度，其对化石能源贸易的依赖关系产生了替代作用。中国既要大力推进可再生能源产业发展，也要加强与能源大国的贸易合作，从而与世界建立更加稳固的双向能源贸易合作的网络关系。

Research on the network dependence characteristics and substitution in international trade: Fossil energy and renewable energy

In recent years, renewable energy is becoming a momentous growth point of international energy trade, which results in a series of new changes for the extent of trade dependence among countries. Firstly, based on application of complex social network analysis and statistics from datasets on the website of International Energy Agency and World Intellectual Property Organization including global energy trade, global economy and innovation indexes for different countries in the period 2011-2020, this paper illustrates the current trade status of fossil energy and renewable energy. Secondly, after using modified Herfindahl-Hirschman Index and network construction formula to build trade dependence networks for fossil energy and renewable energy yearly, this paper respectively discusses the evolution process of the trade dependence networks for fossil energy and renewable energy though horizontal and longitudinal contrasts. Finally, in the context of removing trivial factors: geographical distance, economic differences, degree of openness, pressure to reduce CO₂ emissions and differences in innovation capabilities among countries, this paper induces QAP regression to explicitly distinguish and quantitatively analyze the substitution effect of renewable energy trade dependence on fossil energy trade dependence, which is the key contribution of this study in terms of issues about energy substitution. The results show that from 2011 to 2020, the trade of fossil energy is more stable than renewable energy from 2011 to 2020, while the development of trade of renewable energy is faster. Meanwhile, both kinds of trade dependence networks show robust disassortativity and “core-periphery” characteristic. However, the trade dependence networks of renewable energy show higher average degree of dependence. In addition, the effect on trade dependence networks of fossil energy originating from that of renewable energy has transformed gradually from positive correlation to negative correlation. Hence, it implies that the trade dependence on renewable energy has a substitution effect on that of fossil energy to some extent over time. The outlined findings provide some policy suggestions. One is that China should promote the development of renewable energy industry vigorously, while firmly strengthen the trade cooperation with energy powers. The other is to establish a more stable duplex energy trade cooperation relationship between other countries while increasing the width and breadth of cooperation in international energy trade.