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| 基于置信区间的地震压埋人员实时伤亡状态预估模型 | |
| 引用本文： | 肖东升,项霞,张发平. 基于置信区间的地震压埋人员实时伤亡状态预估模型[J]. 世界地震工程, 2012, 28(1): 26-32 |
| 作者姓名： | 肖东升 项霞 张发平 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 成都理工大学地质灾害与地质环境保护国家重点实验室,四川成都610059;西南石油大学土木工程与建筑工程学院,四川成都610050 2. 四川大学水利水电工程学院,四川成都,610065 3. 十九冶集团路桥工程分公司,四川成都,610000 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(40874015) |
| 摘 要： | 在震后应急救援宏观决策中,地震压埋人员的实时伤亡状态是最重要的定量指标和参考依据。因此,以置信度区间为工具,对影响伤亡状态的参数即初始伤亡指数Co、囤陷环境S和体质综合指数B进行了区间分析,建立了实时伤亡状态模型,并以汶川地震灾区为例,对不同人员的伤亡状态进行了预估,预估值与实际情况的误差为10%左右,表明该模型可供震后应急救援工作参考。 |
| 关 键 词： | 置信区间 伤亡指数 环境系数 体质综合指数 实时 |
Estimation model of real-time casualty states of seismic buried-personnel based on confidence interval |
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| XIAO Dongsheng , XIANG Xia , ZHANG Faping. Estimation model of real-time casualty states of seismic buried-personnel based on confidence interval[J]. World Information On Earthquake Engineering, 2012, 28(1): 26-32 | |
| Authors: | XIAO Dongsheng XIANG Xia ZHANG Faping |
| Affiliation: | 1.State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu 610059,China; 2.School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Southwest Petrol University,Chengdu 610500,China;3.College of Hydraulic and Hydra-electric Engineering,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China;4.Luqiao Engineering Branch of Chinese 19th Metallurgical Group,Chengdu 610000,China;) |
| Abstract: | In order to make decision of post-earthquake emergency rescue in time,the real-time casualties states of seismic buried personnel is the most important quantitative index and reference basis.So,by the way of the confidence interval,the parameters of influencing casualty states including origin casualty index、surroundings and body composite mass index were analyzed,then casualty state estimation model of seismic buried–personnel was set up.At last,taking Wenchuan earthquake as an example the model was used to analyze the casualty state of different buried people,whose error is about 10%.The results show that the model can provide a reference to rescue decision making after the earthquake. |
| Keywords: | confidence interval casualty index surroundings coefficient physical composite index real time |
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