| Estimating the Size and Timing of the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 |
| |
| 引用本文： | Ke-Jun Li,Peng-Xin Gao and Tong-Wei Su National Astronomical Observatories,Yunnan Observatory,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Kunming 650011, Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049. Estimating the Size and Timing of the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24[J]. 中国天文和天体物理学报, 2005, 5(5): 539-545 |
| |
| 作者姓名： | Ke-Jun Li Peng-Xin Gao and Tong-Wei Su National Astronomical Observatories Yunnan Observatory Chinese Academy of Sciences Kunming 650011 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 |
| |
| 作者单位： | Ke-Jun Li，Peng-Xin Gao and Tong-Wei Su National Astronomical Observatories，Yunnan Observatory，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Kunming 650011; Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences，Beijing 100049 |
| |
| 摘 要： | A simple statistical method is used to estimate the size and timing of maximum amplitude of the next solar cycle (cycle 24). Presuming cycle 23 to be a short cycle (as is more likely), the minimum of cycle 24 should occur about December 2006 (±2 months) and the maximum, around March 2011 (±9 months), and the amplitude is 189.9 ±15.5, if it is a fast riser, or about 136, if it is a slow riser. If we presume cycle 23 to be a long cycle (as is less likely), the minimum of cycle 24 should occur about June 2008 (±2 months) and the maximum, about February 2013 (±8 months) and the maximum will be about 137 or 80, according as the cycle is a fast riser or a slow riser.
|
| 关 键 词： | 太阳活动 太阳物理学 太阳周期 尺寸大小 时间 |
Estimating the Size and Timing of the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 |
| |
| Ke-Jun Li Peng-Xin Gao Tong.Wei Su. Estimating the Size and Timing of the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24[J]. Chinese Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics, 2005, 5(5): 539-545 |
| |
| Authors: | Ke-Jun Li Peng-Xin Gao Tong.Wei Su |
| |
| Affiliation: | [1]National Astronomical Observatories, Yunnan Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences,Kunming 650011; [2]Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 |
| |
| Abstract: | |
| |
| Keywords: | Sun: activity - Sun: sunspot - Sun: prediction |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
