用一统计动力模式做1000Hpa温度月预报

本文用一简单的统计动力模式,对冬季1000hPa北半球温度作旬及月平均预报试验。采用了三种不同的求平均方法;一是对逐日预报的结果取所需天数的平均;二是用一窗口过滤器求平均;三是导出平均预报公式。预报结果表明,三种方法的旬和月平均预报均超过惯性预报的水平,其中以后两种方法为佳。

MONTHLY FORECASTS OF THE l000HPA TEMPERATURE USING A STATISTICAL- DYNAMICAL MODEL

A statistical-dynamical model is formulated for time-mean forecast experiments of l000Pa temperature field over the Northern Hemisphere. There are three ways to average in this paper.The simplest and straightforward way is to average over forecast day required.The second is to use a window filter.The third is to derive a time-averaged model from the statistical-dynamical model. The forecasts of 10-day and 30-day average by using three methods mentioned above, especially the last two, have an improvement over a persistence forecast.