基于全球气候系统模式结果的重庆21世纪气候变化预估分析

利用政府间气候变化委员会（IPCC）第4次评估报告提供的13个新一代气候系统模式的模拟结果，分析了不同情景下（高排放SRESA2、中等排放SRESA1B和低排放SRESB1）重庆地区21世纪的气候变化。结果表明：21世纪重庆气候总体有显著变暖、变湿趋势，年平均气温变暖趋势为每100年2．3～4．2℃，年降水增加趋势为每100年5．9％～8．8％。冬季变暖最明显，春季降水增加较显著、秋季减少较明显。在A2、A1B和B1情景下，21世纪后期气温分别比常年偏高3．68、3．28、2．26℃，年降水分别比常年偏多5．24％、5．77％和3．43％。

Climate Change Projection in 21st Century in Chongqing Based on IPCC-AR4 Model Results

By means of the outputs of 13 GCM models provided by the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC-AR4）, the situations of climate change in Chongqing in the next 100 years under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios （SRES A2, SRES A1B and SRES B!） are analyzed. The results show that the climate in Chongqing would have a warming and wetting tendency in the 21st century; the linear tendency of temperature changes would range from 2.3 to 4.2 ℃ per 100 years; precipitation increase would range from 5.9% to 8.8% per 100 years. The largest range of warming would be in winter, while the largest increase of precipitation would be in spring and the largest decrease of precipitation would be in autumn. Considering the effect of SRES A2, SRES A1B, and SRES B1, temperature in Chongqing would increase by 3.68℃, 3.28℃ and 2.26℃, respectively and precipitation would increase by 5.24%, 5.77%, and 3.43% at the end of the 21st century.