基于多源数据融合的云南省雷电灾害风险综合评价与区划

根据自然灾害风险理论,结合气象数据、地理信息、人口与经济资料等开展雷电灾害风险综合评价,研究致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾体等因子与风险的定量化关系,建立评价指标和层次分析模型,运用模糊综合判断和聚类分析等方法计算综合评价指数并划分风险等级.结果 表明:雷电灾害高风险区主要集中在滇中、滇西南及滇西北的丽江东南部等地区;次高风...

Comprehensive Evaluation and Zoning of Lightning Disaster Risks in Yunnan Province Based on Multi-Source Data Fusion

According to the theory of natural disaster risk, combined with the meteorological observation data, geographic information, population, and economic data, the comprehensive evaluation of lightning disaster risks is carried out. This paper studies the quantitative relationship between the risk and the disaster causing factor, disaster breeding environment, and disaster bearing body, establishes the evaluation index and the AHP model, calculates the comprehensive evaluation index, divides the regional risk levels by the fuzzy comprehensive judgment and cluster analysis, and draws the lightning disaster risk zoning map. The results show that: the high risk areas of lightning disasters are mainly concentrated in the central and southwestern Yunnan, and the southeastern Lijiang in Northwest Yunnan; the secondary high risk areas are distributed in Xishuangbanna, Puer, Kunming, Chuxiong, the western Qujing, northern Yuxi and central Dali; medium risk areas are mainly concentrated in Lincang, Dehong, Qujing, Honghe, Lijiang, and the northern Wenshan; the low risk areas are mainly located in Diqing, Nujiang, and Zhaotong. The results of risk zoning are compared with the distribution of historical lightning disasters, which correspond well. To carry out the risk analysis based on pre disaster defense, judge and evaluate the possibility of regional lightning risk, and analyze the influence scope and risk level of disaster causing factors, are helpful to control and dispose risks in advance, and provide references for defense decision making, risk management, and emergency disposal. With the improvement of information and technical methods, the confidence and reliability of risk assessment will also be improved.