黑河中游土地利用/覆被变化及其对碳储量影响的预测

准确预测未来土地利用/覆盖变化及其对区域碳储量的影响对土地利用决策和气候变化研究具有重要意义。以黑河中游流域为研究对象,基于2000年和2012年两期土地利用解译数据,运用CA-Markov模型,并依据《IPCC 2006指南》提供的清单方法,在对研究区2024年土地利用变化特征进行预测分析的基础上评估了2000-2024年黑河中游土地利用/覆被变化对碳储量的影响。结果表明:2000-2012年,研究区耕地、建设用地、林地和草地面积呈增加趋势,未利用土地和水域面积呈减少趋势,土地利用/覆被变化导致碳储量增加3.22×10^6 t;预测2024年黑河中游土地利用变化同2012年相比,耕地、建设用地、林地占研究区比例分别增加3.18%、0.84%和0.77%,未利用土地、草地和水域占研究区比例分别减少3.32%、1.13%和0.33%;2012-2024年土地利用/覆被变化导致碳储量增加7.55×10^6 t,各土地利用类型变化导致碳储量变化更加明显,其中林地和耕地增加是碳储量增加的主要原因,建设用地增加是碳储量减少的主要原因。总体来看,2012-2024年耕地、建设用地、林地将继续呈增加趋势,未利用土地和水体将继续呈减少趋势;2012-2024年较2000-2012年土地利用变化导致碳储量增加4.33×10^6 t,固碳能力表现出较明显的提高。

Prediction of Land Use Change and Its Influence on Carbon Stocks in the Middle Reaches of Heihe River

Accurate prediction of land use/cover change and its impact on regional carbon reserves is of great significance to land use decision-making and climate change research. Based on the map of land use/cover in 2000 and 2012, the CA-Markov model was used to simulate the trend of land use change in 2024, and using the method provided by the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, impacts of land use change on carbon stocks were assessed in the middle reaches of Heihe River during 2000-2024. Results showed that the area of arable land, grassland, construction land and woodland showed an increasing trend, while other land and water area showed a decreasing trend from 2000 to 2012. Land use/cover changes resulted in an increase of 3.22×10⁶ t in carbon stocks from 2000 to 2012. The result of land use prediction showed that compared with 2012, the proportion of arable land, construction land, the woodland in total area in 2024 increased by 3.18%, 0.84% and 0.77%, respectively. At the same time, water area, grassland and other land decreased by 0.33%, 1.13% and 3.32%, respectively. Land use/cover changes resulted in an increase of 7.55×10⁶ t in carbon stocks from 2012 to 2024, changes of different land use types led to more significant changes in carbon stocks, changes of arable land and woodland led to the main increase of carbon storage, and construction land was the main carbon producing source. Overall, the arable land, construction land, and woodland will continue to show an increasing trend, other land and water area will continue to show a decreasing trend from 2012 to 2024, and the capability of carbon sequestration is more obvious in 2012-2024 than 2000-2012.