随机模型在沈阳地区地下水位短期预测中的应用

作者应用随机模型中多元线性回归的方法建立了沈阳地区地下水位动态变化模型。沈阳地区地下水位受气象、水文、开采等因素影响,因此建立了3种地下水位短期预测模型。即:气象型、气象开采型、气象水文开采型。为使预测模型接近于地下水位的实际变化状态,作者用有效开采量来提高模型的拟合精度。通过预测成果与实测值的拟合对比,表明用多元线性回归方法对沈阳地区地下水位进行短期预测是可行的。

APPLICATION OF RANDOM MODEL IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECASTING GROUNDWATER LEVEL FOR SHENYANG AREA

A model showing dynamic change of groundwater level for Shenyang area is set up, using the method of multivariate linear regression in random model.With the groundwater level in Shenyang influenced by some factors,such as meteorology,hydrologic conditions, exploitation and so on,3 kinds of short-term forcasting model are established,which are meteorology type meteorology-exploitation type and meteorology-hydrologic-exploitation type.To make the forecasting model more accurately reflect the actually changing states of groundwater level,the author applies the value of effective expoitation yield to the model in order to raise the fitting precision.The fitting and contrasting of forecasted results with the measured values show that the method of multivariate linear regression is practical for the short-term forecasting groundwater level in Shenyang area.