Desert margins near the Chinese Loess Plateau during the mid-Holocene and at the Last Glacial Maximum: a model–data intercomparison

Expansion and contraction of desert margins around the globe have been inferred from a variety of proxy data and have since been linked, particularly in northern China and in the sub-Sahel, to changes in freshwater flux, vegetation cover, sea surface temperatures and, perhaps most importantly, monsoon circulations. We present a direct comparison of results from numerical general circulation model experiments for the mid-Holocene and for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) with the climatic conditions that have been inferred from loess–paleosol sequences taken from the Chinese Loess Plateau.During the mid-Holocene in northern China, the northwestward migration of the southeast desert margin that has been suggested by grain size analysis is also expressed in the model results. There is a statistically significant wetting of the Plateau region, and increased soil moisture is a consequence of an enhanced summer monsoon whose latent heat release deepens the cyclonic Tibetan low and brings increased low-level convergence and precipitation to the area. North of the desert region, this circulation dries the soil through enhanced atmospheric subsidence, although the northern margin of the desert does not migrate significantly.Expansion of the desert margin toward the southeast at the LGM is small, but there is a statistically significant drying of the Plateau. The local hydrological cycle is reduced, and there is an increase in large-scale atmospheric subsidence over the region that is caused by the presence of the Fennoscandian ice sheet upwind. Model results therefore suggest that, in addition to local micro- and mesoclimatic conditions, regional effects, such as monsoon circulations and distal orography, are also important factors in determining the location of desert margins.