基于ArcGIS的网格化雷电灾害风险评估方法研究与应用*

结合镇海区实际,开展大片区建（构）筑物网格化雷电灾害风险评估模型构建与应用,解决雷电灾害风险评估仅停留在依据灾后损失指标的单体建（构）筑物风险分布评估情况。在常规电气—几何雷电灾害风险评估模型基础上创新应用,引入地理信息处理技术将评估区域进行网格化分割,建立格点内包含建（构）筑物高度及其梯度、土壤电阻率及其梯度、直击雷防护效率、有效截收面积、地闪密度、电子电气设备系统、人口密度、火灾风险等指标在内的多层次网格化雷电灾害风险评估模型,并以辖区某化工企业厂区雷电灾害风险评估为例,对模型实践可行性应用示例。结果表明：对各指标数据集综合分析计算并运用ArcGIS风险区划,结合厂区功能布局特点分析评价,结果与市级雷电灾害风险评估报告、省级雷电易发区划基本一致。采用地理信息技术网格化处理大范围、跨区域雷电灾害风险评估方法,从“点”到“面”建立数学模型,对评估区域范围及扩展范围的雷电灾害风险评估、风险区划、政府决策支持等具有指导意义。

Grid Lightning Hazard Risk Assessment Based on ArcGISMethods Research and Application*

Based on the actual situation of Zhenhai District, this study aims to develop the construction and application of grid lightning disaster risk assessment model for buildings (structures) in large area, and solve the problem that lightning disaster risk assessment only remains in risk distribution assessment of single buildings (structures) based on post-disaster loss index. Based on the conventional Electric-geometric lightning disaster risk assessment model, geographic information processing technology is introduced to segment the assessment area by grid. Build lattice contained within, building height and gradient, soil resistivity and its gradient, lightning protection efficiency, effective cut-off area, ground flash density, electrical and electronic equipment system, population density, fire risk index multi-level grid lightning disaster risk assessment model, and combining with the characteristics of an enterprise plant functional layout and practice the model feasibility application example. The results show that: through comprehensive analysis and calculation of multi-index data set and ArcGIS risk zoning, the risk assessment results of lightning disaster in the factory are basically consistent with the risk assessment report of lightning disaster at the municipal level and the lightning prone zoning at the provincial level. The method of large-scale and trans-regional lightning disaster risk assessment is grids by geographic information technology, and the mathematical model is established from "point" to "surface", which has positive guiding significance for regional and extended lightning disaster risk assessment, risk zoning and government decision support.