Links between climate variation and year class strength of New Zealand hoki (Macruronus novaezelandiae): An update

Hoki (Macruronus novaezelandiae Hector) year class strength (YCS) varies substantially from year to year. We examined associations between YCS and climate variables including the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), satellite sea surface temperatures (SSTs), synoptic weather patterns, wind speeds, and the depth of the west coast, South Island, New Zealand, mixed layer. We evaluated the predictions of a model developed 2 years ago to predict YCS of the western and eastern New Zealand hoki stocks from similar climate variables. New predictive models were developed using updated data. Strong year classes of the western hoki stock were associated with cooler SSTs, a negative SOI, and westerly or south‐westerly flow along the west coast of the South Island. We accordingly predict a moderately strong 1997 year class and weak 1998 and 1999 year classes for the western stock of hoki. The current model cannot predict eastern stock year class strengths with confidence.