一种气候预测综合决策的方法——递归正权综合决策法

根据气候预测的特点，提供了以误差平方和为风险函数，以正权综合为模式的多途径气候预测决策方案。不仅从理论上论证了几种正权方法的优性，还提供了递归技巧，进一步提高了正权综合的预测精度。对1997年汛期降水预测所做的综合决策表明，该方法具有较好的综合决策能力。

The Synthetic Decision Method for Climate Forecasts--The Synthetic Decision Method of Recurrent Positive Weights

The synthetic decision plan of manifold climate forecasts is presented. The risk function of decision making is the sum of error squares, and its model is the synthesis of positive weights. This plan not only discusses the advantages of some positive weight methods in theory, but also provides the recurrent skill and enhances the forecasting precision of the synthesis of positive weights. This method has been proved to have quite good synthetic decision abilities through the synthetic decision making in the forecasts of the precipitation in the 1997's flood season.