核电厂设计地震动评定中的构造法和概率法结果比较

剖析和比较了地震危险性分析方法(综合概率法)和地震构造法的结果,认为,不能简单将构造法的结果作为概率法的上限,也不能确定在10-4的概率水平上,概率法结果就比构造法结果大,因此评定核电厂极限安全地震应同时使用构造法、概率法和其它方法,并取各种结果的最大值

A COMPARISON BETWEEN THE RESULTS OBTAINED BY SEISMOTECTONIC METHOD AND PROBABILISTIC METHOD USED IN THE EVALUATION OF GROUND MOTION FOR DESIGN OF NUCLEAR POWER PLANT

The results obtained by probabilistic method and those obtained by seimotectonic method are compared. The result suggest that (1) the result by seismotectonic method is not an upper limit determined by probabilistic method; (2)the relationship between the results obtained by both these methods at certain exceedance probability levels depends mainly on the variance of attenuation law and the annual occurrence rate of earthquakes; (3) ground motion attenuation law affects the results determined by both methods to certain extent, so the comparison must be under the same attenuation law. Because the result determined by seismotectonic method is not the upper limit of the result obtained by probabilistic method and it is uncertain whether the result obtained be seismotectonic method is larger or not, it is reasonable to use both methods as well as other methods to determine the safety shutdown earthquake.