| Using Grey System Theory for Earthquake Forecast |
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| 作者姓名： | ChengKueihsiang[] TaijiMazda[] |
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| 作者单位： | [1]KaoYuanInstituteofTechnology,Kaohsiung,Taiwan（china [2]DepartmentofCivilEngineering,KyushuUniversity,Kyushu,Japan |
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| 摘 要： | By combining conventional grey correlation analysis,grey clustering method and grey forecasting methods with our multi-goal forecast thoughts and the techniques of grey time series processing,we develop six different grey earthquake forecast models in this paper,Using the record of major earthquakes in Japan from 1872 to 1995,we forecast future earthquakes in Japan.We develop an earthquake forecast model.By using the major earthquakes in Japan from 1872 to 1984,we forecast earthquakes from 1985 to 1995 and check the precision of the grey earthquake models.We find that the grey system theory can be applied to earthquake forecast.We introduce the above analysis methods and give a real example to evaluate and forecast.We also further discuss the problems of how to improve the precision of earthquake forecast and how to strengthen the forecast models in future research.
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统理论 地震预报 预报模型 日本 |
Using Grey System Theory for Earthquake Forecast |
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| ChengKueihsiang,TaijiMazda.Using Grey System Theory for Earthquake Forecast[J].Earthquake Research in China,2002,16(4):411-423. |
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| Authors: | ChengKueihsiang[] and TaijiMazda[] |
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| Institution: | 1) Kao Yuan Institute of Technology, Kaohsiung, Taiwan (China);2) Department of Civil Engineering, Kyushu University, Kyushu, Japan |
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| Abstract: | By combining conventional grey correlation analysis, grey clustering method and grey forecasting methods with our multi-goal forecast thoughts and the techniques of grey time series processing, we develop six different grey earthquake forecast models in this paper. Using the record of major earthquakes in Japan from 1872 to 1995, we forecast future earthquakes in Japan. We develop an earthquake forecast model. By using the major earthquakes in Japan from 1872 to 1984, we forecast earthquakes from 1985 to 1995 and check the precision of the grey earthquake models. We find that the grey system theory can be applied to earthquake forecast. We introduce the above analysis methods and give a real example to evaluate and forecast. We also further discuss the problems of how to improve the precision of earthquake forecast and how to strengthen the forecast models in future research. |
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| Keywords: | Grey system theory Earthquake forecast Forecast model Earthquakes in Japan Review on Deep Geophysical Exploration and Research in China1$ Wang ChunyongInstitute of Geophysics China Seismological Bureau Beijing 100081 China The sta |
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