对滑坡监测预警相关问题的认识与思考

近年来,随着科技的迅猛发展,监测预警已成为主动防范地质灾害的重要手段,国家每年投入大量的人力物力财力开展滑坡预警工作。但调查发现,不少相关从业人员(主要是专业技术人员和管理人员)对滑坡监测预警方面的一些基本问题还存在误区甚至错误的认识,严重影响其防灾减灾效果。结合近年来在滑坡监测预警实践中的研究成果和经验教训,本文重点就滑坡监测和预警方面的一些问题提出了自己的认识。其主要观点包括:并不是监测点和监测手段越多就越有效,滑坡监测应突出针对性、实用性和目的性,监测方案设计及具体监测内容都应为滑坡预警提供依据。不少滑坡的发生具有一定的突发性,应采用具自动变频功能的监测设备才能获取滑坡全过程尤其是临滑阶段完整的数据,为科学预警提供保障。监测仅是手段,预警才是目的,不仅要重视滑坡的监测工作,更应高度重视预警工作,且应同时加强区域性气象预警和单体滑坡预警工作。目前常用的阈值预警方法误报、漏报率较高,应将预警的重心转移到对历史数据的统计分析和基于变形、地下水位、雨量等关键指标的预警模型和判据研究,据此提高滑坡预警的准确性和实用性。

UNDERSTANDING THE LANDSLIDE MONITORING AND EARLY WARNING:CONSIDERATION TO PRACTICAL ISSUES

Monitoring and early warning have become the important means of preventing geohazards with rapid development in technology. A great deal of financial, manpower and physical resources have been adopted to work on landslide monitoring and early warning. However, some technical and managerial personnel have misunderstandings in landslide monitoring and early warning, which seriously affects the geohazards prevention and mitigation effects. Based on research results and lessons learned in practice over recent years, this paper discusses on some basic issues in terms of landslide monitoring and early warning. Main points include:(1)It is not that more monitoring locations and methods are better. The landslide monitoring plan should highlight pertinence, practicability and purpose, and its design and content mainly provide the basis for landslide early warning; (2)The occurrence for many landslides is sudden, and monitoring equipment with self-adaptive data acquisition function should be used to get entire deformation data, especially the accelerated creep stage, to guarantee scientific alert. (3)Monitoring is just a means to an end, while early warning is the end goal. Much attention should be paid on landslide early warning, like regional-scale meteorological early warning and slope-scale landslide early warning; (4)The commonly used early warning models with thresholds have a high rate of false and missing alarms. The study on statistical analysis of historical data, early warning models based on key parameters of deformation, underground water level and precipitation, become a high priority to improve the accuracy and practicality of landslide early warning.