广东地区断裂安全度的计算

以准静态非稳定地震模型为理论依据，采用二维有限元方法与正交设计法，联合反演本世纪以来广东省及其邻近地区的５次强震活动对断裂安全度的影响。进行探讨潜在的地震危险区。结果表明，断裂安全度下降剧烈特别是安全度接近为零的地区具有较大的危险性。阳江地震以后，广东东部的几条北西断裂安全度数值较低，最近期地震危险最突出的地段。此外，珠江三角洲南侧的北东东向断裂与北西向断裂的交汇处也具有一定的潜在地震危险。

SECURE DEGREE CALCULATION OF FAULTS IN GUANGDONG AREA

Adopting the method of two-dimension element analysis and the orthogonal experimental design, in this paper we simulated that five strong earthquake occurring in Guangdong Province and its vicinity area since 1911 effected on the secure degree of fault,arid analyzed potential earthquake zone. The results show that the more descending of the secure degree of fault, the more seismic risk, espacially at the segment where the secure degree of fault is closed to zero. Recently several of NW striking faults in the east of Guangdong is the most risk segment after the Yangjiang earthquake. In addition, the places where NEE striking faults are intersected by NW striking faults also have apparent seismic risk.