Application of principal component analysis to understand variability of rainfall |
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Authors: | R N Iyengar |
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Institution: | (1) Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, 560 012 Bangalore, India |
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Abstract: | The usefulness of principal component analysis for understanding the temporal variability of monsoon rainfall is studied.
Monthly rainfall data of Karnataka, spread on 50 stations for a period of 82 years have been analysed for interseasonal and
interannual variabilities. A subset of the above data comprising 10 stations from the coherent west zone of Karnataka has
also been investigated to bring out statistically significant interannual signals in the southwest monsoon rainfall. Conditional
probabilities are proposed for a few above normal/below normal transitions. A sample prediction exercise for June–July using
such a transition probability has been found to be successful. |
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Keywords: | Monsoon rainfall variability principal components empirical orthogonal functions eigenvalues spatial structure predictability transition probability |
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